Tom Herman's 2018 recruiting class looms large at Texas
Tom Herman sat behind a Longhorn Network microphone wearing a black Texas pullover on National Signing Day and talked about the mission for the 2018 class.
It was to make sure the best players in the state of Texas stay home and play for the Longhorns. Simple enough.
That is Herman’s biggest challenge and biggest opportunity.
Saddled with a program that has not had a winning season since 2013, Herman faced a devastating and nearly impossible battle to retain many of the top in-state players in Texas’ 2017 recruiting class after he was hired in late November.
Unsurprisingly, he largely failed to sway late opinion.
None of the top 16 in-state prospects signed with Texas, the first time in the Rivals.com era dating back to 2003 that the Longhorns landed none of the state’s top 10 players.
The state’s best prospect, five-star DT Marvin Wilson, picked Florida State over LSU, Ohio State and others. Texas wasn’t even in his top five. Five-star offensive tackle Walker Little chose Stanford over the Longhorns. Ohio State swooped in and took five-stars Baron Browning and Jeffrey Okudah.
“The problem is this,” Rivals.com National Recruiting Director Mike Farrell said. “When there is blood in the water, the sharks start circling and that’s what happens when a state becomes open.
“We’ve seen it happen in other states where the dominant presence in the state is not keeping all the kids, so everybody starts recruiting there. When you see Ohio State coming in and grabbing four- and five-stars and Alabama and Florida State, they know there is weakness, so you’re going to see more programs come in and it’s going to be even more competitive for Texas.”
The 2017 transitional class for Texas ranked second in the Big 12 – behind rival Oklahoma – but No. 31 nationally. Next year’s group, a loaded 2018 recruiting class, is going to be monumental for Herman to turn things around in Austin.
It won’t be easy.
Four other times in the Rivals.com era, Texas did not land any of the state’s five-stars, although this is the first time the Longhorns missed on four. And Texas has only signed a majority of the top 10 in-state prospects twice in that stretch, in 2006 and 2010, when they got six. Three other times, the Longhorns landed 50 percent, but in all the other years it’s surprisingly below half.
Texas has not signed the state’s top player since 2011. Florida State has come in and done it twice in that stretch.
“It’s intriguing that they haven’t had as much in-state success keeping top 10 players because I thought they just sort of could pick-and-choose before,” Farrell said. “It will be a challenge for Herman.”
It is certainly something Herman can handle, since he went 22-4 in two seasons at Houston, drew rave reviews for his coaching acumen as an assistant at Ohio State and he has tremendous coaching roots in the state of Texas.
Only two of the top 20 players in the state are committed in the 2018 class – DB Caden Sterns to LSU and OL Luke Matthews to Texas A&M – so it’s almost a clean slate for big wigs like DBs Anthony Cook and B.J. Foster, the top two recruits in the state, and many others. The Longhorns are without a 2018 commitment, but it’s early.
“It’s huge for them to get things back on track,” Jason Suchomel of Orangebloods.com said. “Tom Herman said the 2017 class was about finding pieces that fit, where the 2018 group would be the first one where they could be accurately judged.
“It’s going to be a wait-and-see deal with some of those top guys. There are some who mentioned committing somewhat early, but I don’t see where Texas has the pull right now to land some of the top-level commitments this early. If Texas wins some games in the fall and gets off to a good start, you could see some dominoes fall.”
The opportunity is definitely there for Herman and his staff. The 2017 class was a miss, but an expected one. As for the 2018 class being back in the top 10 nationally?
“Are we going to be there next year? Absolutely, absolutely we will,” Herman said.
Expectations are high in Austin – always.
